Here are the DOGE steps and the order in which they are being carried out:

1. Estimate the number of jobs that will become redundant if an agency standardizes on the same updated tools.
2. Add in any jobs where DOGE people are unsure of their function or seem redundant, such as QA roles.
3. Lay off that percentage of people, plus a few more if the numbers are not impressive, regardless of those positions relative to the above perceived inefficiencies. (aka people are people and interchangeable)
4. Set a tight deadline to complete the transitions, assuming no layoffs.
5. Inform the remaining staff about the new responsibilities they need to assume and learn, in addition to their existing tasks. Added bonus, many more will quit or retire at this point.
6. Start the transition even if the tools needed for the transition are not ready yet.
7. Look for a scapegoat when not only the transition fails to meet the deadline, but also when necessary work, such as system patches, fails to be completed.
8. Decide to eliminate the agency or hire staff to above pre-DOGE levels to clean up the mess, depending on the level of rioting in the streets.

From my vantage point, we are rapidly approaching step 7. Granted, there will be some variance by project. Please don’t take my work for it. Reach out to anyone you know still working in or with a federal agency and ask.

Many private companies are using a similar game plan for AI adoption. Do not get me wrong, I’m all about automation. A lot of my over 40 years as a developer has been to automate my job away. The point is that you should get the new system working before laying off people, not after.

So on the plus side, despite the current state of the job market, the future for contract labor looks promising in the near future. Similar to the boom from Y2K. I think maintaining contact with your old project is key, since employers will be looking for people with the skill sets of those laid off, as bringing in new people generally takes a good while to get them up to speed.